Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
07/16/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For Cleveland Indians fans, the hard part is over.
They've endured a first half of the season that saw their team finish 20 games below .500 (34-54) and fall 15 1/2 games off the pace in the American League Central. Granted, not even the most die-hard Cleveland fans were penciling the Indians into a postseason spot in 2010. General manager Mark Shapiro made certain to temper any such expectations at the outset of the season.
Having just limped past the halfway point of the season, the Indians will use the second half to put their future plans into focus. And despite being buried in the standings and having the lowest attendance figures in the majors, there are a few reasons for optimism in Cleveland.
At the forefront is rookie catcher Carlos Santana, who so far has certainly lived up to his super-prospect hype. In only 95 big league at-bats, Santana has homered five times, driven in 16 runs and hit .284. Likewise, first baseman Matt LaPorta, the key prospect in the CC Sabathia deal in 2008, has started to come along lately. In 12 games since being recalled from a minor league detour on June 27, he's hit .357 with four homers and 11 RBI.
But the one guy who has really rewarded the organization for its patience is starting pitcher Fausto Carmona (8-7), who earned his first All-Star nod with a 3.64 ERA and a pair of complete games through 18 starts. Most importantly, the right-hander has drastically cut down on the number of walks that led to his demotion to the minors last year.
Fellow starter Jake Westbrook may never produce to the level of his $11 million annual salary, though lately he has made steady progress in his return from Tommy John surgery. It would be a bonus for the front office if he has pitched well enough to attract an offer from a team looking for starting pitching help at the trade deadline.
Cleveland took a big hit with the season-ending knee surgery to three-time All-Star outfielder Grady Sizemore in May. Injuries to right fielder Shin-Soo Choo (thumb) and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera (forearm) obviously haven't helped the Tribe's fortunes at the plate as well, although both are targeting a return by the end of July. Before his thumb injury on July 2, Choo was in line for an All-Star nod with a .286 batting average, 13 home runs and 43 RBI.
Mitch Talbot has been a pleasant surprise in the rotation, leading all AL rookies with eight wins. In addition, fellow starter Justin Masterson seemed to get into a groove over his last few starts. And in the bullpen, Chris Perez has emerged as a legitimate candidate to take over the closer's job.
All in all, things aren't looking so bleak for incoming GM Chris Antonetti, who will replace Shapiro at the end of the season. Still, the primary objective for manager Manny Acta and the front office is to identify which players will be around for the long haul. The evaluation process takes center stage when the team resumes play Friday night.
"I just want these young kids to get out and play hard," Acta said. "We're going to get something out of it. We're going to be able to see who's going to join that core that we're building for the future."
ROOKIES BOESCH, SCHERZER KEY FOR TIGERS' SECOND HALF
When looking at how the Detroit Tigers' roster shapes up, it's given that Miguel Cabrera will put up big power numbers, Justin Verlander will mow down opposing lineups, and Johnny Damon will continue to make key veteran contributions. But to seize the top spot in the AL Central, it's up to some of Detroit's younger guys to produce in the second half.
Cue rookie outfielder Brennan Boesch and 26-year-old No. 2 starter Max Scherzer, both of whom have been instrumental in the Tigers' first-half record (48-38). In eight starts since returning from his midseason demotion to Triple-A Toledo, Scherzer is 5-2 with a 2.44 ERA, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings. Boesch has his name in the mix for Rookie of the Year honors thanks to a ridiculous .342 batting average, 12 homers and 49 RBI. He boasts a .593 slugging average and is on pace for nearly 300 total bases as a rookie.
It's tough to imagine Boesch keeping up that kind of pace for the duration of the season, but the Tigers do need his presence in the middle of the lineup. As for Scherzer, the Tigers need him to continue to bridge the gap between Verlander and the rest of the rotation.
If both can achieve their respective goals, it would go a long way toward helping the Tigers finally capture their first AL Central crown.
WHITE SOX PICK UP RIGHT WHERE THEY LEFT OFF
When a team is as hot as the Chicago White Sox have been, typically the last thing the players want is some time off. Winners of eight straight heading into the All-Star break, you could hardly blame the White Sox for wanting to keep the train rolling.
Nevertheless, this week's three-day layoff does not appear to have taken any wind out of Chicago's sails, as the team resumed play Thursday with an 8-7 win over the Minnesota Twins for their ninth consecutive triumph. Prior to that victory, in which Chicago rallied back from a four-run deficit, manager Ozzie Guillen put into perspective what a trip to the playoffs this season would mean to him.
"If we go to the playoffs, it will be most satisfying year I have had in seven years with this ballclub," Guillen told the Chicago Tribune. "This one will be more exciting than the two (previous) playoffs for me."
Over their last 31 games, the White Sox are an incredible 26-5. If they keep up this pace much longer, Guillen figures to be one very satisfied manager.
ROYALS TWEAKING ROTATION FOR SECOND HALF
The baseball adage, "You're only as good as your next day's starting pitcher" is about as old as the game itself. Still, the saying holds true today, as it will for years to come.
That brings us to the Kansas City Royals, whose starters have assembled an unsightly 5.11 ERA as a group. The best of the bunch, reigning AL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke, has fallen victim to insufficient run support, although he's gone 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA over his last five starts to lower his season ERA to 3.71. The staff ace, was scratched from his scheduled start on Sunday with some discomfort in his shoulder, has only a 5-8 record for the year.
Projected No. 2 starter Gil Meche was placed on the 60-day DL on Thursday, a move that was designed to clear roster space for Henry Barrera, who was ending a rehab assignment. Meche is eligible for reinstatement on July 25, though he has not pitched since May 25 and will require some time on a Minor League rehab assignment.
Former No. 1 overall draft pick Luke Hochevar has been out since June 11 with a sprained elbow, though he hasn't been particularly effective anyway in pitching to a 5-4 record and a 4.96 ERA in 13 starts before the injury.
All of that has left manager Ned Yost scrambling. He has even tinkered the rotation so as to line up Brian Bannister for as many day starts as possible.
In six daytime starts this year, Bannister is 4-0 with a 2.37 ERA. But in 12 outing as night, he is 3-7 with a 7.45 ERA. By slotting Bannister in the No. 3 spot in the rotation, four of his next nine starts will come in day games.
Of course, it will take more than Yost's tinkering for the Royals' starters to excel in the second half.
"We have to play consistent baseball, and it all revolves around your starting pitching," Yost told the Kansas City Star. "If we're going to be in it, our starting pitching has to be able to take us to that point."
HITS KEEP COMING FOR FADING TWINS
Already with a 3-8 record in July, the Minnesota Twins can ill-afford many more bad breaks if they are to stay in contention for the AL Central crown. However, they were dealt a big blow on Thursday, when four-time All-Star first baseman and former league MVP Justin Morneau was placed on the 15-day DL with lingering symptoms from a concussion suffered during a collision at second base on July 7.
Morneau worked out for about 25 minutes on an elliptical machine Thursday morning, but later felt some "fogginess" and decided a DL stint would be best to clear out all the cobwebs.
In other injury news, second baseman Alexi Casilla has moved up to Double-A as he rehabs from bone spurs in his right elbow. According to manager Ron Gardenhire, Casilla has seven or eight days left on his rehab assignment, pending any setbacks. Meanwhile, no timeline has been set on reliever Clay Condrey, who has been dealing with a right elbow injury. The right-hander has been touring doctor's offices, with Gardenhire telling the team's website the injury "isn't looking good."
<< Predators sign Lundmark
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Nashville Predators signed center Jamie
Lundmark to a one-year, two-way contract on Friday.
The 29-year-old appeared in 36 games between Calgary and Toronto in the
2009-10 season and tallied five
<< EWU home victories would turn opponents red
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In an effort to boost exposure, Eastern
Washington University will literally go in the red this year, replacing the
traditional grass surface of Woodward Field with red artificial turf.
The move is admitte
<< As the wind blows, scores soar at St. Andrews
St. Andrews, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After second-round play was stopped
for 66 minutes at the British Open, the wind continued to blow at St. Andrews,
and in the process, sent scores soaring.
With the final group midway through th
<< Montanes into semis in Stuttgart
Stuttgart, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Albert Montanes of Spain rolled over
second-seeded Jurgen Melzer in the quarterfinals of the Mercedes Cup tennis
event on Friday.
Montanes, seeded fifth, cruised over the second-seeded
Union hopes to halt Toronto's unbeaten run >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Toronto FC will be trying to extend its
unbeaten streak to nine games on Saturday when they visit PPL Park to face the
Philadelphia Union.
Toronto recorded a 1-0 win over the Colorado Rapids last
N.Y. visits Columbus with first place at stake >>
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Columbus Crew host Red Bull New York in a
top-of-the-table clash on Saturday night in Major League Soccer action.
The Crew are two points up on the Red Bulls in the Eastern Conference table.
Columbus (8
Real shoots for more road success at Dallas >>
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Salt Lake forward Robbie Findley said after
a recent win at the Chicago Fire one of our goals this year was to "improve on
our road record."
Findley converted a penalty in the 1-0 win on July 8, helping Rea
Bulls add another former Utah player in Brewer >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago Bulls have reportedly agreed to a
three-year deal with guard Ronnie Brewer.
According to a report on the team's website, the Bulls made the move for
Brewer after the Magic matched the team
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting