Count Fleet Stakes belongs to Alpha

Horseracing Betting Lines

01/07/2012 - Ozone Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Odds-on favorite Alpha put himself in the Kentucky Derby picture with a solid victory in Saturday's $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct. The Count Fleet is Aqueduct's first stakes of 2012 for three-year-olds.

Alpha, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, went off as the 4-5 favorite in the seven-horse field. With Ramon Dominguez in the saddle the colt broke well from the gate and laid third behind pacesetter and 5-2 second pick Il Villano.

On the turn for home the favorite drew even with Il Villano with How Do I Win moving into third. Alpha took the lead with a furlong to run and went on to post a 2 1/2-length win over the late running Stephanoatsee.

Finishing third was Il Villano followed by How Do I Win, Speightscity. Whistleblower and Shkspeare Shaliyah.

Owned by Godolphin Racing, Alpha covered the mile and 70 yards in 1:42.83 on a fast track.

"Turning for home, he responded every time I asked him," said Dominguez. "He galloped out so strong that I had to get an outrider to pull him up. You always have to go just by what you have seen, but judging by today he should be able to handle more distance."

Alpha added $90,000 to his bankroll, doubling it to $180,000. Last year he was second to Union Rags in the Champagne and 11th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile won by Hansen with Union Rags second. Saturday's victory was the colt's second in four career starts.

"It was a great day," McLaughlin said from Florida. "We'll probably leave him there (in New York) - we'll probably go to the Withers (February 4) and on to the Wood with Alpha. For sure we'll have to talk to the Godolphin people, but that's what we'll look at for right now."

Alpha returned $3.60, $2.60 and $2.10. Stephanoatsee paid $4.40 and $2.90, and Il Villano paid $3.00 to show.

Wwwisland Horseracing Betting News

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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